Chrysler coping test
Chrysler’s bankruptcy lasted just six weeks, but its next test — operating as a Fiat SpA-controlled company — arguably will last longer.
The road ahead for Chrysler Group LLC remains a rocky one, analysts say, despite being saved from liquidation by Fiat of Italy.
Benefits of the partnership, such as sharing vehicle platforms and dealership networks, won’t surface until mid-2011, when the first vehicles using Fiat platforms arrive at U.S. dealerships, according to one analyst’s timeline.
Until then, the alliance must figure out how to endure a dire market without a strong portfolio of new products. It also must implement its plans to make and sell Fiat vehicles in the U.S.
"The next couple of years are going to be about figuring out the difference between the idea and reality," said Stephanie Brinley, a Troy, Mich.-based analyst for auto consulting firm AutoPacific.
Already, the automaker has taken sweeping steps: It laid off workers, cut production and announced plant closures — including both assembly plants in Fenton — to restructure and survive. It has a new leader, Fiat Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne, who spearheaded a turnaround at the Italian automaker in recent years.
But Marchionne and Chrysler still face worrying obstacles:
— Tumbling sales caused by the global recession and tight credit.
— Consumers’ negative perception of a bankrupt company.
— An aging product line with few new products in the pipeline until the Fiat-based vehicles arrive.
Those issues will push Chrysler’s U.S. market share below 5 percent in the next 12 to 15 months, predicted Erich Merkle, president of Autoconomy.com in Grand Rapids, Mich.
Chrysler had a 13.6 percent market share in 2005 and was the No. 3 automaker in terms of U.S. market share, according to data from J.D. Power and Associates. The next year, Toyota pushed Chrysler into the fourth spot.
Merkle estimates Nissan and the South Korean conglomerate of Hyundai-Kia Automotive Group will outpace Chrysler’s U.S. market share in the next six months. That could push Chrysler to the No. 7 spot, he said.
"Every time you find a new partner, the product cadence and product pipeline takes a hit," Merkle said of Chrysler’s new alliance.
Chrysler, for its part, contends it has 24 new vehicles in the next four years. Spokesman Rick Deneau declined to say how many of those were new-name products versus redesigned versions of existing models.
In 2010, it will launch completely redesigned versions of the Chrysler 300, Jeep Grand Cherokee, Dodge Charger and Dodge Durango, he said.
Another analyst, Jim Hall, said that for the next few years, Chrysler will need to live off its profitable vehicles — the minivans and the Dodge Ram. Both have had sales challenges.
"They have to play with what they’ve got," said Hall, principal of 2953 Analytics in Birmingham, Mich.
FIAT TURNAROUND
But the automaker will be playing with a new leader, Marchionne.
Marchionne took the helm of Fiat in 2004, when the automaker was at the edge of bankruptcy. By changing its management and elevating younger employees to higher positions, he helped Fiat rebound, said Pierluigi Bellini, an associate director in Milan, Italy, for IHS Global Insight.
"He’s a very strong leader. He thinks very much outside of the box," Bellini said. "He’s very demanding (of those he oversees) but also gives a lot of empowerment to them."
Marchionne also has forged more than two dozen partnerships globally, Bellini added. And it seems he intends to do more: Marchionne told trade publication Automotive News that manufacturers need to make 5.5 million vehicles a year to remain profitable and survive.
Fiat made about 2.4 million vehicles last year among its Fiat, Alfa Romeo, Ferrari, Maserati and Iveco units, according to IHS Global Insight data. Chrysler made about 1.9 million vehicles among its Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge brands.
Bellini expects that Marchionne will continue to pursue alliances.
Just two weeks into his position as the head of the new Chrysler company, he is using a similar shake-up to the one implemented with Fiat.
Earlier this month, on the day Chrysler and Fiat finalized their deal, Marchionne announced changes to the new company’s leadership car insurance. He promoted several Chrysler executives, including Jim Press as his deputy chief executive, but also brought in a few Fiat leaders.
Fiat is "certainly not coming in and taking over," Brinley said, adding that Marchionne kept many responsibilities with North American, not Italian, executives.
A request to talk with Marchionne or one of his executives was not granted. Chrysler spokeswoman Shawn Morgan said the company is not making executives available for interviews.
WHAT’S NEXT
Fiat SpA took an initial 20 percent stake in the U.S. automaker earlier this month. In exchange, the Italian automaker will give Chrysler access to small-car platforms at a time when the U.S. company’s lineup is skewed toward pickups and sport utility vehicles. It also gives Chrysler another inroad to selling vehicles outside North America — a feat the U.S. automaker has struggled to achieve.
For Fiat, the alliance gives it access to Chrysler’s manufacturing facilities and dealership network. Fiat made a strong push in the U.S. market in the 1960s and 1970s but pulled out after distribution and quality problems, according to IHS Global Insight.
"Fiat has been looking for returning to the U.S. with the Alfa Romeo (luxury) brand for years," Bellini said.
Several Alfa Romeo cars are scheduled for the U.S. market in the next few years, according to a research note by IHS Global Insight. Likely plans include:
— The Alfa 169 sedan will be built in Chrysler’s Brampton, Ontario, plant in November 2011 for the 2012 model year.
— The Alfa Romeo GTX will be built at Chrysler’s Jefferson North Assembly Plant in Detroit in July 2011.
— The Alfa Romeo MiTo hatchback will be built at the Belvidere, Ill., plant in July 2011.
Some Chrysler products — like the Dodge Caliber and Jeep Liberty — likely will be built on Fiat-based platforms, the research note said.
The only Fiat-badged model to be sold in the U.S., the Fiat 500 subcompact, will be made at Chrysler’s Toluca, Mexico, plant starting roughly in July 2011, according to IHS Global Insight.
Chrysler’s Deneau said Marchionne told employees a few weeks ago that product plans for the Chrysler-Fiat alliance could be unveiled in 60 to 90 days. He could not provide details about specific vehicles.
Deneau also wouldn’t comment on IHS Global Insight’s report of the mid-2011 timeline for Fiat-based vehicles to be sold in the U.S.
But before those car designs come to the U.S., Fiat and Chrysler will have to address differences in federal vehicle regulations and pricing structures.
"Europeans are willing to pay more for small cars (than Americans), and they’re willing to pay for features in small cars," Brinley said.
Several analysts said American car shoppers may not eagerly embrace the Fiat products for several reasons. First, the reputation of poor quality that Fiat left in the U.S. may dissuade consumers from returning to the automakers’ brands, analysts said.
Second, analysts question whether the U.S. government, and not consumer demand, is leading the push for smaller cars on U.S. roads.
"The U.S. is not (a big market) for small, compact cars," even if gasoline prices go higher and the government implements higher fuel regulations, Bellini said. "I still think the American people like big cars, maybe with smaller engines."
Whether Fiat can sell these smaller vehicles in the U.S. is difficult to gauge.
And some say the Fiat alliance won’t accomplish Chrysler’s most important goal: saving it from an eventual breakup.
Merkle said he was glad a bankruptcy judge approved the alliance because it gives Chrysler a chance to wind down operations versus a quick liquidation.
A possible scenario, he said, is Fiat selling off the Jeep and pickup brands, while keeping some Chrysler plants open to produce its own products in North America.
"I take no pleasure in saying that because I love the Chrysler (brands)," he said. "I just don’t see how they get through this."