Portugal Misses 2010 Deficit Target, Raising Chances of European Bailout - Bloomberg
Portugal reported a budget deficit of 8.6 percent of gross domestic product last year, missing a government target of 7.3 percent and causing a jump in borrowing costs that increases the risk of a bailout.
The revisions won’t affect the government’s goal for a 4.6 percent shortfall in 2011, the national statistics agency said today in an e-mailed statement. The agency also revised the 2009 budget gap to 10 percent from 9.3 percent, after European Union accounting changes prompted Portugal to add more than 2 billion euros ($2.8 billion) to the 2010 deficit. The yields on the country’s two, five and 10-year bonds rose to euro-era records.
Portugal has been raising taxes and implementing the deepest spending cuts in more than three decades, aiming to convince investors it can narrow its budget gap, curb its debt and avoid following Greece and Ireland in seeking a bailout. The nation was downgraded twice in the past week by Standard & Poor’s, which said new European bailout rules may mean it will eventually renege on its debt obligations.
“We always thought the debt sustainability of Portugal was at risk,” said Giada Giani, an economist at Citigroup in London, “It does add more pressure on Portugal, which is probably unable to access markets in the next few weeks and will probably need a bailout.”
Bonds Slump
Portugal’s two-year government bond yield today climbed 27 basis points to 8.30 percent, topping the rate on the nation’s 10-year debt for the first time since 2006. The difference in yield that investors demand to hold Portugal’s 10-year bonds instead of German bunds rose to a euro-era record 490 basis points. The 10-year yield gained 8 basis points to a record 8.18 percent.
S&P followed its cut in Portugal’s creditworthiness today by lowering its ratings on Banco Espirito Santo SA and three other lenders, leaving their outlook negative due to a possible further downgrade of the country’s credit rating. Another cut would strip Portugal of an investment grade. Portugal’s lenders have become increasingly dependent on financing from the European Central Bank as investor concern about a bailout has left them virtually shut out of interbank markets.
S&P said on March 29 the country may need an international bailout and debt restructuring. A rescue may total as much as 70 billion euros, said two European officials with direct knowledge of the matter free business cards.
No Aid Request
“The government is not in conditions and does not have the powers to request any type of external aid,” Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos told reporters in Lisbon today. “The government will guarantee that there is the necessary financing for the country to face its responsibilities and honor its commitments.”
Prime Minister Jose Socrates offered to resign March 23 after the opposition rejected further measures to curb the deficit. President Anibal Cavaco Silva is holding crisis talks today in Lisbon aimed at setting a date for early elections. Under Portuguese law, the vote is likely to fall between two bond redemptions Portugal faces on April 15 and June 15 that total 9 billion euros).
Bond Maturities
Portugal’s ability to raise funds to finance those maturities may determine whether it will have to seek EU aid. The country can meet “debt redemption commitments scheduled or 2011, especially the redemptions of long-term debt that will take place in April and June,” Secretary of State for Treasury and Finance Carlos Costa Pina said earlier this week.
Socrates said on Jan. 28 the 2010 deficit would be 7 percent of GDP or less, narrower than the 7.3 percent the government had initially forecast. In 2009, the shortfall was 9.3 percent, the fourth-biggest in the region after Ireland, Greece and Spain.
Teixeira dos Santos acknowledged in parliament on March 23 that the EU accounting changes would have an impact on public finances. “It’s like changing the score after the match is over,” he said. Without the additional charges, the deficit would have been 6.8 percent of GDP, he said today.
Impairment costs stemming from the 2008 seizure of Banco Portugues de Negocios SA added 1 percentage point of GDP to the budget deficit last year and charges linked to the public-transportation system accounted for 0.5 percentage point of the deficit, the statistics agency said.
The accounting changes ordered by Eurostat, the EU’s statistics agency, inflated 2010 deficits in other countries. Austria today revised its shortfall for last year to 4.6 percent after reclassifying debt of government-owned companies worth about 1 percentage point of GDP.