Financial life in a big town

Americans’ confidence in the economy in November bounced back to its highest level since July, the latest sign that they are beginning to feel more cheerful about spending during the holiday shopping season.

The Conference Board, a private research firm, says Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose 15 points to 56.0. That’s up from a revised 40.9 in October _ the lowest level since the recession _ and the biggest jump since the 59.2 reading in July. The November number is encouraging, but far below the reading of 90, which indicates an economy on solid footing.

The confidence numbers are widely watched by economists because consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of economic activity. The confidence of U.S. consumers slipped after the summer amid renewed fears about a second recession. But Americans, who have been grappling with high unemployment and a weak housing market, have shown that they are feeling much more comfortable spending. Over the past weekend, for instance, they spent more than they ever have before during Black Friday weekend, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season.

“Consumers appear to be entering the holiday season in better spirits, though overall readings remain historically weak,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center in a statement low fee cash advance.

Franco noted that consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved after six months of steady declines. Consumers’ anxiety regarding the short-term outlook for business conditions, jobs and income prospects eased considerably.

One barometer of the index, which measures how shoppers feel now, rose to 38.3 from 27.1. The other gauge, which measures how shoppers say they will feel over the next six months, rose to 67.8 from 50.0.

Consumers have several reasons to be more confident as there have been some signs of improvement in the economy. Earlier this month, for instance, the Labor Department reported that the job market improved modestly as unemployment rate nudged down to 9 percent in October from 9.1 percent in September. The month marked the 13th consecutive month of job gains.

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If Toronto fireman Alexander Gunn was alive today, he might well feel like the Warren Buffett of his times.

The semi-detached home he bought in Toronto’s Riverdale neighbourhood for $1,200 in 1906, sold in November for $825,000.

Conventional wisdom has it that buying a home is one of the smartest things we can do. If you have been lucky enough to live in the Greater Toronto Area, especially in the last 10 years when house prices have doubled, that would be true.

But over the long run, is home ownership such a great deal? To find out Moneyville took a close look at Gunn’s house over the last 105 years.

Here’s what we found: Adjusted for inflation, an investment in the stock market would have yielded a better return, including all the ups and downs — starting with the 1929 stock market crash that ushered in the Great Depression.

Toronto was still rebuilding from the Great Fire of 1904 when Alexander Gunn was promoted to district captain after years of climbing the ladder at the city’s No. 3 firehall at Yonge and Carlton Sts. With his new responsibilities came a pay hike, from $850 to $1,000 a year.

It was the nod he needed to buy his first home.

The three-storey house in what is now known as Riverdale was brand new, part of a development on what had been fields where locals grew food to sell at market. It promised good luck: A shamrock had been crafted into its soaring gable, most likely by Irish immigrants who helped build these turn-of-the-century subdivisions.

Each day on his way to work, Gunn would have headed down Broadview Ave. with its sweeping view of the downtown and watched the burned-out city being rebuilt.

He would have kept warm at night in front of the house’s wood-trimmed fireplace and watched through its lead-glass windows as thousands more homeowners flocked to the area after 1912 when Danforth Ave. was paved and, later, the Bloor Viaduct erected across the Don Valley.

Gunn paid just a little more than a year’s salary for the modest house on a 20 foot by 112.5 foot lot. Today, a buyer would pay a fortune, relatively speaking — about five times their annual income given that the average price of a GTA home in October was $465,000 and the average household income $82,000, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

Gunn and his family lived at 56 Simpson Ave. for more than four decades, through two World Wars, the Great Depression and the remarkable transformation of Toronto.

The house changed hands just four times before its most recent sale. And the average annual gain over the 105 years, adjusted for inflation, was just 3.9 per cent.

“If I had to give new homebuyers some advice, it’s that houses aren’t always the ultimate investment. You should never bet the farm on the house, so to speak,” says Francis Fong, an economist with TD Economics.

Fong and his colleague Sonya Gulati helped Moneyville adjust prices for inflation and compare the appreciation of the home against Toronto Stock Exchange returns.

The challenge was to compare apples to apples. We had the home’s sale price going back to 1906, but the Bank of Canada’s inflation records don’t begin until 1914. Toronto Stock Exchange records start in 1919.

So we opted to track gains from 1947 onward, seven years after Gunn’s death, when the house sold for $6,300. We found that in those 64 years, the house appreciated at an average annual rate of 2.3 per cent, adjusted for inflation. (Inflation averaged 3.9 per cent during the same period, largely because of spikes in the 1970s and early ’80s.)

The TSX, on the other hand, did marginally better — producing average returns of about 3 per cent.

But when the everday costs of a house were included, things likes taxes, maintenance and upkeep, 56 Simpson fared much worse

“A house is not a good investment. It is a roof over your head,” says James McKellar, director of the real estate and infrastructure program at York University’s Schulich School of Business.

These days, homeowners in hot markets like Toronto and Vancouver may feel they have hit the jackpot: Most Toronto homes have virtually doubled in price over the last decade and in Vancouver they have almost tripled.

But once you factor in the other costs — interest on the mortgage, new kitchens, bathrooms, furnaces and electrical updates, “you’re lucky to make anything,” says McKellar. Studies have shown that it’s $800 a month cheaper to rent a 1,000-square-foot home than to own it, he notes.

“By any empirical study, houses do not inflate. They are a cost. But we all have to live somewhere.

“Calling a house a good investment is a process of rationalization. The last thing you want to admit is that, ‘I bought the house because I fell in love with it.’”

Catharine Grossi is proud to admit that. She and her husband Paul bought 56 Simpson for $462,500 back in 2001 because they were keen to move back to the city from the suburbs.

“When I saw that so much of the original house was there, and it was updated . . . That was good for me. I loved it as soon as I saw it.”

She became fascinated by the home’s history — she spent a day at the City of Toronto archives — and details such as its original fireplace, century-old exposed brick, the shamrock.

The house proved to be the perfect place for Grossi’s two sons and daughter to drop their bags after university or stints abroad.

Grossi wasn’t thinking so much about the gains she’s made, but rather the life she’s lived at 56 Simpson when the house sold Nov. 4. She and Paul are downsizing into a home two doors from their daughter and her newborn twins.

Grossi asked just one thing when her realtor called to say there had been an offer at asking price: “Do they love the house?”

James McKellar gets that.

He has lost money in the housing market: About $25,000 in the wake of the oil patch bust in Calgary in 1983 and $35,000 on a Boston home during the ’90s recession.

He now owns a home in Moore Park.

“The big drawback of renting is that it doesn’t give you the emotional satisfaction of owning,” he says with just the slightest chuckle.

“At the end of the day, when you go home and make dinner and relax, the numbers really don’t matter.”

Also read:

How we paid off our mortgage in three years

Why I sold my house and rent instead

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Italy’s borrowing rates skyrocketed during bond auctions Friday, battering stock markets in Europe as the continent’s escalating debt crisis laid siege to the eurozone’s third-largest economy.

The auction results are another sign that Italy’s new technocratic government under economist Mario Monti faces a battle to convince investors it has a strategy to cut down the country’s euro1.9 trillion ($2.6 trillion) debt. They are also likely to fuel calls for the European Central Bank to use its firepower to cool down a debt crisis that’s rapidly getting worse.

“Mario Monti has failed so far to impress bond markets he has the power and authority to do what is required,” said Louise Cooper, markets analyst at BGC Partners. “I don’t rate his chances either.”

Driving the markets fears is the knowledge that Italy is too big for Europe to bail out, like it has done with smaller nations Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Given the size of its debts _ Italy must refinance $300 billion next year alone _ the government has to continually tap investors for money. But when borrowing rates get too high, it fuels a potentially devastating debt spiral.

Friday’s auctions indicated that investors see Italian debt as increasingly risky. The country had to pay an average yield of 7.814 percent to raise euro2 billion ($2.7 billion) in two-year bills _ sharply higher than the 4.628 percent it paid in the previous auction in October. And even raising euro8 billion ($10.7 billion) for six months proved exorbitantly expensive. The yield for this auction spiked to 6.504 percent, nearly double the 3.535 percent rate in October.

Following the grim auction news, Italy’s borrowing rates in the markets shot higher, with the ten-year yield spiking 0.34 percentage point to 7.30 percent _ above the 7 percent threshold that forced other nations into bailouts.

Italy was not the only country in the 17-nation eurozone in experiencing a disappointing auction this week. Even Germany _ the region’s strongest economy and the main funder of eurozone bailouts _ suffered a shock Wednesday when it failed to raise all the money it sought, its worst auction result in decades. Spain too saw its borrowing rates ratchet sharply higher even after a landslide election victory for the conservative Popular Party, which has made getting Spain’s borrowing levels down its top priority.

Monti, who replaced Silvio Berlusconi as Italy’s leader earlier this month, has pledged to quickly implement new austerity measures followed by deeper reforms. He spent much of his first week in office meeting with European Union officials and the leaders of France and Germany laying out his plans.

During the meetings, Monti emphasized his intention to balance the budget by 2013 and to introduce “fair but incisive” structural reforms,” his office said in a statement following a Cabinet meeting Friday.

Monti also has pledged to reform the pension system, re-impose a tax on homes annulled by Berlusconi’s government, reduce tax evasion, streamline civil court proceedings, get more women and youths into the work force and cut political costs.

EU monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn told the Italian Parliament that “full and effective implementation will be key.”

He urged a “clear and ambitious roadmap for reform and an ambitious timeline” and expressed particular concern about low employment among Italian youth.

“Over the longer term, productivity will depend on a well-educated labor force,” Rehn said. “I am particularly concerned about high unemployment, which is a tremendous waste of talent that Europe simply cannot afford.”

Rehn was in Rome to monitor Italy’s compliance with promises to liberalize its labor market, reduce the bloated public sector and sell off some state assets.

There were also signs that contagion over Europe’s debt crisis was moving eastward. Moody’s downgraded Hungary’s sovereign debt to junk status _ from Baa3 to Ba1 with a negative outlook _ a decision Hungary hotly criticized. Hungary is not a member of the eurozone, but trades with many eurozone members.

This week’s developments have ratcheted up the pressure on the European Central Bank to step up its bond purchases in the markets, though Germany remains adamantly opposed. The current program is designed to support bond prices in the markets, thereby keeping a lid on the borrowing rates.

So far, the ECB has been buying limited amounts of bonds and has to sell an equivalent amount of assets. The ECB said Monday it bought bonds worth only euro4.5 billion last week, down from euro9.5 billion a week earlier.

Potentially, the ECB has unlimited financial firepower through its ability to print money and many countries in the eurozone, including France, want the bank to act more decisively to solve the debt crisis.

However, Germany finds the idea of monetizing debts unappealing, warning that it lets the more profligate countries off the hook for their bad practices.

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President Nicolas Sarkozy appeared to temper his calls for the European Central Bank to play a bigger role in solving Europe’s debt crisis as he agreed to a German effort to change EU treaties to improve the governance of the troubled eurozone.

Speaking after meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Premier Mario Monti on Thursday, Sarkozy said “propositions for the modification of treaties” would be presented in the coming days.

He wouldn’t elaborate on what these changes may be but said they would be ready in time for the next EU leaders summit on December 9.

This was the first meeting of the three leaders since Monti took over last week following mounting market concerns over Italy’s huge debts.

The meeting in Strasbourg, France comes amid signs that even Germany and France _ the eurozone’s two biggest economies _ are not immune from the crisis that’s already seen three relatively small countries bailed out.

All three leaders said they would do what it takes to stabilize the situation and save the euro.

“We want the euro, we want a strong, stable euro … we will do everything to defend it,” Merkel said.

France has been reluctant to resort to changes to EU treaties to improve the way the eurozone countries work together and set policies and prevent future crises low fee payday advance. Germany had pushed for such changes, saying voluntary pledges by national governments are no longer enough to boost market confidence.

Merkel insisted that the proposed changes would “not deal with the European Central Bank,” which she stressed was responsible for monetary, not fiscal, policy. Sarkozy did not push for a greater role at their closing press conference, while Merkel insisted on the bank’s independence.

Many think the ECB is the only institution capable of calming frayed market nerves.

Potentially, the ECB has unlimited financial firepower through its ability to print money. However, Germany finds the idea of monetizing debts unappealing.

Monti, meanwhile, reiterated his pledge to balance Italy’s budget by 2013 though he sidestepped the question on whether achieving that aim would require more austerity measures, and if so, whether it risked triggering a recession in the eurozone’s third largest economy.

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Asian stocks fell Wednesday after the U.S. lowered its economic growth estimate for the third quarter and climbing yields on Spanish bonds magnified worries over Europe’s debt load.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2 percent to 17,882.10. South Korea’s Kospi lost 2 percent to 1,789.83 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 1.6 percent to 4,066.80. Japanese stock markets were closed for a public holiday.

Wall Street slipped Tuesday after a government report showed the U.S. economy grew at a 2 percent annual rate from July through September, down from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Economists had expected the figure to remain the same.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.5 percent to close at 11,493.72. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 0.4 percent to 1,188.04. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.1 percent to 2,521.28.

Higher borrowing costs for Spain, meanwhile, renewed worries about Europe’s debt crisis. The higher rates suggest that investors are still skeptical that the country will get its budget under control despite a new government coming to power this week.

Investors have been worried that Spain could become the next country to need financial support from its European neighbors if its borrowing rates climb to unsustainable levels.

Greece was forced to seek relief from its lenders after its long-term borrowing rates rose above 7 percent. The rate on Spain’s own benchmark 10-year bond is dangerously close to that level, 6.58 percent payday advance lenders.

Underscoring jitters was the lack of market reaction to an announcement by the International Monetary Fund that it will provide quick cash on flexible terms to countries facing sudden financial stress.

“Failure of this news to result in significant gains across markets shows just how cautious investors are,” Stan Shamu of IG Markets in Melbourne said in a report.

Concerns remain that Europe’s debt crisis is pushing the region toward recession, which would slow industrial activity in countries around the world that export to Europe.

Australian resource shares took a big hit after the country’s House of Representatives approved a proposal to impose a windfall profits tax on big mining companies. The Senate is expected to endorse the measure in early 2012.

BHP Billiton, the world’s largest mining company, fell 2.6 percent. Rival Rio Tinto lost 1.6 percent and Energy Resources of Australia slid 4.2 percent.

Benchmark oil for January delivery was down 65 cents to $97.36 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.09 to finish at $98.01 per barrel on the Nymex on Tuesday.

In currencies, the euro fell to $1.3466 from $1.3509 late Tuesday in New York. The dollar rose slightly to 76.99 yen from 76.97 yen.

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Whether people celebrate or criticize Occupy Wall Street, the movement has reinvigorated calls for local buying just in time for the manic holiday shopping season.

Buying local and American-made became a battle cry for some in the movement that blames big business greed for shuttering American operations and shipping those jobs overseas.

“Some people talk about buying local and not supporting large chain stores, but really I think we want to encourage people to think consciously about where they shop,” said Zach Chasnoff, 33, of south St. Louis.

Chasnoff has wielded a bullhorn at a few Occupy St. Louis rallies, though he said he couldn’t speak as a representative of a movement. He said he’d been waiting for an opportunity to ignite this particular discussion.

Chasnoff owns a house painting business that fluctuates from two to seven employees during his busy season. When the bottom fell out of the economy in 2008, he was virtually unemployed for about seven months and didn’t know if he’d keep his house, he said. Meanwhile, bank bailouts and news of continued executive bonuses infuriated him. He blames greed for companies’ transferring jobs overseas and cheap foreign goods for undercutting American-made items.

Many economists challenge that logic, saying that free trade ultimately benefits the U payday loans.S.

“It feels almost anti-patriotic to buy goods made elsewhere right now. You are perpetuating the loss of manufacturing jobs,” Chasnoff said, echoing long-standing protests by some against, for instance, buying foreign cars.

Buying local, on the other hand, puts consumers, not corporations, in control, he said.

Would it work?

Steve Farazzi, a professor of economics at Washington University, said that the wage disparity concerns at the root of the Occupy Wall Street movement wouldn’t be solved by shopping at boutiques and farmers markets.

“I’d have a hard time telling people that their holiday shopping patterns will have an important impact on income distribution,” Farazzi said.

If globalization has killed American jobs and driven down wages, then the tool to combat the trend would be higher wages in emerging markets such as China, not necessarily closing operations there. China’s extremely cheap labor is the problem for American workers, not the fact that Chinese workers have jobs formerly held by Americans, Farazzi explained.

Rising global wages would level the playing field for American workers, he said, and it would increase the demand for all goods if we have more people who can afford to buy. But Farazzi acknowledged that a push to boost wages for Chinese workers

Is this the end of the app as we know it? The app is dead. Long live the web app?

It may be too early to pronounce the downloadable application officially dead, but some tech pundits are already preparing obituaries for this staple of the mobile world.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since early April, a sign that layoffs are easing and hiring may pick up.

The Labor Department says weekly applications dropped by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000. It was the fourth decline in five weeks.

The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped to 396,750. That’s the first time the average been below 400,000 in seven months.

Applications need to consistently drop below 375,000 to signal sustained job gains payday loan lenders. They haven’t been that low since February.

The total number of people receiving benefits also fell to the lowest level since Sept. 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the financial crisis intensified.

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Peabody Energy Corp. on Wednesday announced that it has increased its stake in Australia’s Macarthur Coal Ltd. beyond 90 percent — the threshold beyond which it can force remaining shareholders to sell their interests.

The announcement means St. Louis-based Peabody now has full control over the mining company, ending an 18-month quest. It also means Peabody will pay out an extra $100 million, bringing the total value of the acquisition to almost $5 billion.

Peabody last month promised to sweeten the offer slightly, to $16.40 a share from $16.14, to help increase its stake beyond 90 percent, giving it fuller control of the company.

Acquiring 100-percent of Macarthur “brings clear strategic and financial benefits,” Gregory H. Boyce, Peabody’s chief executive, said in a statement. He said the company “looks forward to completing operational improvements, accelerating the realization of synergies and advancing Macarthur’s growth pipeline.”

Queensland-based Macarthur controls 270 million tons of coal reserves and operates mines that produced about 4 million metric tons last year in the face of severe flooding that restricted output.

The additional sales volume is small for Peabody, which sold almost 250 million tons of coal worldwide last year. But Macarthur is the world’s largest exporter of pulverized injection coal — a commodity that’s in high demand from steelmakers. The bulk of Peabody’s sales volume is lower-priced coal that’s burned for electricity generation.

The acquisition also continues Peabody’s rapid expansion in Australia, a coal-rich country nearer to energy hungry China.

Peabody failed in an effort to gain a controlling stake in Macarthur last spring, offering as much as $3.8 billion. In July, the company made another bid with a minority partner, steelmaker ArcelorMittal, which was already a 16-percent shareholder.

Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal dropped out and agreed to sell its interest to Peabody after China’s Citic Resources, Macarthur’s largest shareholder, agreed to accept the cash takeover offer, giving the suitors a majority stake.

Peabody recently sold $3.1 billion of notes to help finance the acquisition.

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Honda Motor Corp. says it is beginning to restore some production of cars and motorcycles that took a hit from the recent flooding in Thailand.

The Japanese company has restarted output of some motorcycle and power products at its subsidiary in Thailand. It had suspended motorcycle output at the plant since Oct. 11 due to supply problems.

Honda’s auto factory in Thailand remains closed because of the floodwaters.

Honda will continue to limit production at six auto plants in the U.S. and Canada. But it says some factories will produce at rates exceeding the 50 percent the company announced previously. It expects to return to normal levels on Dec. 1 and 2.

Honda says it plans no layoffs at its North American plants.

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