Prime Minister Julia Gillard highlighted risks posed by the nation’s ties to a global commodity boom, with a patchwork economy emerging from export gains accompanied by subdued domestic spending.
“I’m very conscious that a strong Australian dollar has benefits and it has burdens,” Gillard said in an interview yesterday in Canberra, citing stresses posed by currency gains for the manufacturing and tourism industries. The local dollar, spurred by revenue from shipments of coal and iron ore to China, has reached levels unseen since 1982 in recent weeks.
Gillard’s comments reflect a challenge faced by policy makers from Brazil to China, where strengthening exchange rates risk undermining exports unconnected to the climb in global commodity prices. While emerging markets have taken steps to stem currency gains, such as through limits on capital inflows, Australia has refrained from such measures and Gillard said she favors letting the market set the so-called aussie.
“The domestic economy is probably weaker than expected and that reflects the fine balancing act for policy makers,” said Tom Vosa, director of economic research at National Australia Bank Ltd. in London. “There is a risk of a Dutch disease effect,” he added, referring to the Netherlands’s experience of a surge in growth in its energy industry that drove up the currency and hurt manufacturing.
Highest Since Float
Australia’s dollar, the world’s fifth-most traded currency, in December reached its highest level against its U.S. counterpart since before it was floated in 1983, and has climbed 12 percent in the past year. It fell as much as 0.2 percent after Gillard’s comments, before recouping losses to trade little changed at $1.0169 as of 11:10 a.m. yesterday in London. It touched $1.0256 on Dec. 31.
“I’m concerned about the burdens that this places on some industries and some parts of the country,” Gillard said. At the same time, Australia accepts the implications of a freely floating currency and chooses to “live with the disciplines that come from that,” she said when asked whether her government would consider intervening to weaken the dollar.
The currency’s advance has been propelled by demand from China for iron ore and coal, which have helped make Australia the world’s biggest shipper of the two commodities.
“For this current resources boom, we anticipate that it will be sustained,” Gillard, 49, said two days before departing on her first visit to the U.S. as prime minister. “We have very strong demand from growing economies like China for our resources. We anticipate there will be strong demand and good prices for a long period of time to come.”
U.S. Trip
Gillard said she will discuss the global economic recovery and strategic developments in Asia during her nine-day visit to Washington and New York. Gillard is scheduled to meet President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. She will address Congress March 9, the first Australian leader to do so since John Howard in 2002.
Australia’s economic growth accelerated to a quarterly pace of 0.7 percent in the final three months of last year, a government report showed two days ago guaranteed payday loan. The nation is benefitting from its strongest terms of trade, a measure of income from exports, since the early 1950s, according to the central bank.
Outside of mining, the economy is doing less well. Australia’s services industry contracted in February, a survey showed yesterday. The performance of services index was 48.7 from 45.5 in January, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Australian Industry Group said in Sydney. A figure below 50 indicates contraction.
‘Very Optimistic’
“High commodity prices, record terms of trade, a strong dollar, puts some pressure on other sections of the economy,” she said, declining to comment on the outlook for interest rates. “The fundamentals are strong and consequently I am very optimistic for our economic outlook.”
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens gave no indication this week that he’s ready to resume increasing the benchmark overnight cash rate target, now at 4.75 percent, in coming months. Bond investors have raised bets on higher inflation as the mining-investment boom holds down unemployment.
The nation recorded its biggest annual gain in employment on record in 2010 as resource and energy companies boosted hiring to meet demand from China in what the RBA has called a once-in-a-century mining boom. The jobless rate was 5 percent in January, compared with 9 percent in the U.S.
Mining Investment
BG Group Plc, based in Reading, U.K., said Oct. 31 it will begin work on a $15 billion liquefied natural gas venture in Queensland, generating 5,000 jobs. BG, Chevron Corp. (CVX), Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and ConocoPhillips are among companies investing about A$200 billion in proposed LNG projects in Australia.
Gillard’s Labor government has vowed to return the country’s budget to surplus by 2012-13 after recording a deficit of A$54.8 billion ($55.7 billion) last fiscal year, which reflected spending to avoid a recession during the global financial crisis.
Treasurer Wayne Swan said two days ago flooding in the state of Queensland trimmed fourth-quarter economic expansion by 0.4 percentage points. Growth will be cut by a percentage point in the first quarter of 2011 because of natural disasters, he said.
The world’s biggest supplier of iron ore, coal and wool expects to earn a record A$211 billion from raw materials shipments in the 12 months ending June 30.
“The immediate focus is on returning to surplus and repaying debt,” said Gillard, a former lawyer who replaced Kevin Rudd as leader in June 2010. “We have very low debt levels by the standards of the world. We want to make sure we are surplus budgeting.”
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