Financial life in a big town

Greece’s government warned Tuesday that the debt-crippled country will have to ditch the euro if it fails to finalize a second, euro130 billion ($169 billion) international bailout.

Spokesman Pantelis Kapsis said negotiations in the next three or four months with international debt monitors will “determine everything,” including whether Greece escapes a disastrous bankruptcy.

Greece is being kept afloat by a first, euro110 billion ($142 billion) international bailout agreed in May 2010, after investors shocked by the country’s huge budget deficit and debt mountain demanded sky-high interest rates to continue buying Greek bonds.

An additional bailout was agreed in October, when it became clear that the first batch of funds would not suffice, but that deal has yet to be finalized.

Sorting out the details of the bailout, which also foresees a euro100 billion writedown of Greece’s privately held debt, is the main task of the coalition government headed by former central banker Lucas Papademos, whose short mandate is expected to expire in early April.

“This famous loan agreement must be signed, otherwise we are outside the markets, out of the euro and things will become much worse,” Kapsis told private Skai TV.

In return for its first batch of rescue loans from its European partners and the International Monetary Fund, Greece imposed deeply resented austerity measures to contain its budget deficit _ set to hit at least 9 percent of GDP last year despite repeated spending cuts and tax hikes.

Kapsis said further cutbacks, possibly including new taxes, might be required to address a revenue shortfall,

“We will see what the shortfall is and it is very likely that measures will be required,” he said. “I also don’t believe it is easy to impose new taxes, but what does cutting spending mean? To close down the public sector?”

“There is no easy solution,” Kapsis said.

The details are expected to be determined during talks later this month with debt inspectors from the EU, the European Central bank and the IMF, who will determine whether the country receives its next loan installment.

“We can’t take (approval of the next installment) for granted,” Kapsis warned.

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U.S. stocks rose Thursday in a thinly-traded session as investors focused on signs of strength in the economy before calling it a year.

The Dow Jones industrial average () rose 136 points, or 1.1%, to end at 12,287. The S&P 500 () added 13 points, or 1.1%, to 1,263. The Nasdaq () gained 24 points, or 0.9%, to 2,614.

Thursday’s rebound put the S&P 500 back on track for a modest 0.4% gain in 2011, after the broad market index fell sharply Wednesday. The Dow is currently up 6.1% for the year, while the Nasdaq is set for a 1.5% loss.

Stocks were supported by reports on housing, manufacturing and employment that raised hopes about the U.S. economy.

"Today’s last round of major U.S. reports before the weekend New Year’s celebration provided a decidedly positive spin to the outlook," wrote Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics, in a note to clients.

Traders said low volume, typical of the holiday week, has led to more pronounced swings, and some of the moves are coming from year-end portfolio rebalancing rather than convictions over the trajectory of the market or particular stocks.

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"We expect light trading through today and tomorrow, and any noise can create wild swings," said Doug Cote, chief market strategist at ING Investment Management.

Looking ahead, many investors expect stocks to move higher in the first few months of 2012.

The U.S. economy has shown signs of improvement recently, with economists forecasting a 3.3% increase in gross domestic product in the final three months of 2011. In addition, corporate profits are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, continuing an 11-month streak.

But the outlook for next year remains clouded by the debt crisis in Europe, which continues to weigh on demand for risk assets such as stocks.

On Thursday, an auction of Italian 10-year bonds, which have seen yields continue to flirt with the 7% danger zone, provided muted results. While yields were reported below prior levels, demand was short.

The euro fell to a 17-month low and analysts warn the currency could fall even further in 2012.

"Europe is a powder keg and could explode at any time, and likely will when we are the most complacent," said Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisors in Sacramento cash advance america.

Economy: Jobless claims rose 15,000 to 381,000 in the latest week, according to the U.S. Labor Department. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 368,000 claims.

But the figure remained below 400,000, giving investors hope that the labor market will strengthen in the new year.

The National Association of Realtors index of pending home sales, which measures signed sales contracts but not closed sales, rose 4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million in November from 4.25 million in October.

Economist had expected the a 0.6% increase in pending home sales.

The report boosted shares of homebuilders, including Pulte (, Fortune 500), Masco (, Fortune 500), Lennar () and DR Horton (, Fortune 500).

An index of manufacturing activity in the Chicago area eased slightly in December but held near a 7-month high, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

Companies: Amazon (, Fortune 500) eased after analysts at Goldman Sachs (, Fortune 500) suggested that the online retailer’s sales growth for the holiday period may fall short of expectations.

Shares of Yahoo (, Fortune 500) gained 2.7% after reports that China’s Alibaba Group has hired a lobbying firm to prepare a bid for Yahoo.

BP () edged higher despite reports that employees could face criminal charges in relation to last year’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain’s FTSE 100 () added 0.8%, the DAX () in Germany rose 0.9% and France’s CAC 40 () rose 1.1%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite () edged up 0.2%, the Hang Seng () in Hong Kong fell 0.7% and Japan’s Nikkei () lost 0.3%.

Betting on the dollar in 2012

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro and the British pound but fell versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for February delivery rose 31 cents to $99.05 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $23.20 to $1,540.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, with the yield easing to 1.89% from late Wednesday.  

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Americans are gaining faith that the economy is on the upswing. The monthly Consumer Confidence Index surged to the highest level since April and is approaching a post-recession peak.

The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose almost 10 points to 64.5, up from a revised 55.2 in November. Analysts had expected 59. The level is close to the post-recession peak of 72, which the index reached in February.

The surge in December builds on another big increase in November, when the index rose almost 15 points from the month before.

One component of the index that measures how shoppers feel now about the economy, rose to 46.7, up from 38.3 in November. The other barometer, which measures how shoppers feel about the next six months, rose to 76.4, up from 66.4.

Improving confidence is in line with retail reports of a decent holiday shopping season.

Economists watch the confidence numbers closely because consumer spending _ including items like health care _ accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. Still, the December confidence reading is below the 90 level that indicates an economy on solid footing.

Analysts are cautious about whether the gains are the start of something more sustainable.

“While consumers are ending the year in a somewhat more upbeat mood, it is too soon to tell if this is a rebound from earlier declines or a sustainable shift in attitudes,” Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.

Even with the increase in confidence, shoppers are still nervous about their jobs and the overall economy according to the preliminary results of the survey, which ran Dec pay day loans. 1-14.

Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased to 6.7 percent from 5.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 41.8 percent from 43.0 percent. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 13.3 percent from 12.4 percent while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 20.2 percent from 23.8 percent.

That’s because while the job market is steadily improving, unemployment _ at 8.6 percent _ is still high. And housing remains wobbly. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of home prices, also released Tuesday, dropped in October in 19 of the 20 cities it tracks. It was a second straight declining month, further evidence of a bumpy housing recovery.

Heading into the holiday season, store executives were nervous about consumers’ willingness to spend. Merchants offered big discounts on holiday merchandise and lured shoppers with expanded hours.

After a record spending spree over Thanksgiving weekend, the season’s semi-official start, shoppers retreated for a few weeks. Then stores saw a surge of shopping the week before Christmas as consumers took advantage of better discounts.

The National Retail Federation now expects a 3.8 percent increase in holiday sales, up from its original forecast of 2.8 percent made in September when the economy’s recovery looked more uncertain. More data will be released this week that will offer more clues about stores’ last-minutes sales surge before Christmas.

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Plastics maker Spartech Corp. cut its loss for the fourth quarter in half.

Clayton-based Spartech reported a loss of $27.7 million in the fourth quarter that ended Oct. 29, or 90 cents a share, compared to a loss of $55.7 million, or $1.81 a share a year ago.

Spartech produces plastic sheet, compounds and packaging products. Sales of higher margin products for transportation and construction customers helped Spartech’s sales increase 13 percent in the quarter, to $293.2 million, compared with $259.6 million a year ago.

For its 2011 fiscal year, Spartech posted a loss of $21.1 million, compared with a loss of $50.4 million in fiscal 2010.   

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Two executives at MF Global are seeking to distance themselves from an estimated $1.2 billion in customer funds that has gone missing, according to their prepared testimony for a Senate hearing.

Bradley Abelow, the president and chief operating officer, and Henri Steenkamp, the chief financial officer, both say they don’t know where the money is or why it is missing.

Abelow says he cannot explain what happened to the money without access to MF Global documents, which a trustee now controls.

Steenkamp says he had no direct involvement with transfer of funds.

Former Sen. Jon Corzine, who led MF Global as CEO until last month, told a congressional panel last week he doesn’t know what happened to the money. All three will testify Tuesday before the Senate Agriculture Committee.

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Stocks rallied Wednesday on hopes that a deal to save the euro would be agreed at a summit of European leaders at the end of the week.

Investors are betting EU leaders will agree on Friday a strategy that will allow the 17 countries that use the euro to link up their economies more closely. The tighter budget rules, proposed by the leaders of Germany and France, could then allow the European Central Bank to play a bigger role in solving the crisis by buying up the bonds of the most-imperiled countries.

“The market is becoming optimistic that the ECB will aggressively step up its action as both a reward for political action or in reaction to the threat of recession,” said Jane Foley, an analyst at Rabobank International.

Ahead of Friday’s meeting, the ECB is expected to cut interest rates on Thursday, possibly by as much as half a percentage point. If it did sanction such a big move, then the rate would fall to 0.75 percent and below the 1 percent that had previously been considered the floor.

Lower interest rates would help the eurozone economy, which has been sliding back toward recession under the weight of the debt crisis that threatens to spread from the relatively small economies such as Greece to much-bigger Italy and Spain.

Concerns that this could happen have eased this week. That was most evident in the performance of Italian and Spanish bond prices. Both have recovered this week, sending their yields _ the interest rates the countries would pay to borrow on markets _ down to more manageable rates. The yield on Italy’s ten-year bond was at 5.75 percent on Wednesday, way down from the 7 percent level it had traded at in recent weeks.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX rose 0.4 percent to 6,051 while the CAC-40 in France rose 1 percent to 3,212 paperless payday loans. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was 0.4 percent higher at 5,593.

Wall Street was poised for a solid opening too _ Dow futures were up 0.5 percent at 12,176 while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 futures rose 0.6 percent to 1,262.

The euro was trading flat on the day at $1.3400.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday he is very encouraged with the progress Europe is making in coming up with a plan to shore up the euro in the wake of a crippling debt crisis. Geithner’s comments to reporters followed a meeting with French Finance Minister Francois Baroin on the second day of his whirlwind trip through Europe.

“A more upbeat tone from Geithner in his support for Europe’s efforts to unify fiscal policy across the eurozone has been well received by investors,” said Jordan Lambert, a trader at Spreadex.

Earlier in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.7 percent to end at 8,722.17 _ its highest close in a month. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.9 percent to 1,919.42 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.6 percent to 19,240.58.

Mainland Chinese shares edged higher, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index climbing 0.3 percent to 2,332.73, ending a five-session losing streak.

Oil prices meanwhile edged higher alongside stocks _ benchmark crude for January delivery was up 51 cents to $101.79 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this report.

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Ask the people who invest billions for a living to name their favorite picks for 2012 and you’ll get a smorgasbord worthy of a holiday party: Brazilian stocks, U.S. junk bonds, and government debt from Colombia. Ask them what they dislike and they’ll name one of the top-performing investments this year: U.S. government bonds.

Investors can rattle off a long list of reasons to avoid Treasurys. They pay next to nothing and are bound to plunge in value whenever interest rates begin climbing from their historically low levels. It seems nobody likes Treasurys, yet everybody keeps buying them anyway.

“Our least favorite asset is Treasurys,” said Christine Hurtsellers, chief investment officer for fixed-income at ING Investment Management during a recent press briefing. “We still have a lot, but it’s hard to make the argument for them.”

It’s a tricky problem for bond-fund managers at a time when everyday Americans are trusting them with more of their savings. Among investors, there’s a solid belief that Treasury prices must fall and push interest rates up at some point. But those who have bet on a Treasury market collapse this year got burned.

Bill Gross, the bond-world version of investment sage Warren Buffett, dropped nearly all Treasury holdings from the fund he manages at Pimco in early 2011. He argued that if Republicans held up lifting the government’s borrowing limit, the country would risk default. Borrowing rates would spike as the world’s investors dropped U.S. government debt, just as they have in Europe.

Most of what Gross predicted came true. The debt-limit fight raised worries about default and led to Standard & Poor’s taking away the country’s AAA credit rating in early August. But instead of spiking, U.S. borrowing rates plunged as traders sold everything else to buy U.S. government debt. The race into Treasurys helped drive the entire bond market up 3.8 percent from July to September. Gross got the big picture right but his big bet against Treasurys didn’t pan out. Pimco’s Total Return Fund lost 1.2 percent, its worst quarterly performance in three years.

It’s been a recurring story since the financial crisis hit in 2008. For three years running, pundits have predicted that investors will eventually refuse to finance the U.S. government’s $15 trillion in debt and the Treasury market will collapse. But worries over the U.S. economy and the perilous state of Europe’s financial system keep drawing banks and money managers from around the world back to the U.S. dollar and Treasurys.

That demand continues to push U.S. government bond prices up, the main reason why the Treasury market has returned 8.5 percent this year, despite microscopic yields, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch data. The benchmark for stock market funds, the S&P 500 index, has returned less than 1 percent, including dividend payments, and that’s with a 7.4 percent surge over the past week.

“It’s been a pretty strong year for bonds,” said Michael Gitlin, director of fixed income at T. Rowe Price, “and it’s largely a result of Treasurys.”

Judging by the gauges money managers usually check before making a move, buying Treasurys still looks like a bad idea. Consider this sample:

(asterisk) The benchmark 10-year Treasury pays just 2 percent a year. Take inflation into account and the payout on Treasurys equals negative 1.5 percent, what finance types call the real rate.

(asterisk) Treasury yields pay less than top-grade corporate bonds at 3.7 percent and even less than the stock market’s 2 percent dividend yield.

“My colleagues say there’s little value in 10-year (Treasurys) and I’d agree,” Gitlin said. “People have been saying there’s a fixed-income bubble. No, there’s a Treasury bubble.”

If there’s so little to like about U.S. government bonds, why are the world’s investors still buying Treasurys instead of dumping them? In a word, it’s Europe.

As the crisis seemed to spread from country to country this year, the world’s traders plowed more money into Treasurys. The higher the demand for U.S. debt, the lower the interest rate, or yield. So when it looked like Greece might default on its debts earlier this year, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note sank below 3 percent. And when attention turned to Italy and its government debts the yield sank even further, dipping below 2 percent in September. The shift of money out of Europe and into the U.S. has pushed Europe’s borrowing rates to dangerous levels while causing U.S. interest rates to sink.

“You can hate the budget situation and hate the low yield, but if there’s a panic it’s the asset that outperforms,” said Robert Robis, head of fixed-income strategy at ING Investment Management.

A good reason to hold Treasurys, in other words, is that the Treasury market remains the world’s favorite hiding spot. So, for many fund managers Treasurys aren’t exactly an investment. Buying Treasurys is like taking out an insurance contract, Robis said. They’re protection against global financial trouble.

The ING Global Bond fund, for instance, has 15 percent of its $641 million in Treasurys, less than the 20 percent in the benchmark Barclay’s bond index. Robis said having none would be like betting European governments will come to a quick solution to the region’s debt crisis and that the U.S. economy will soon recover its health.

“There’s still a need to hold Treasurys,” Robis said. “Just don’t expect to make a fortune off them.”

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Is this the end of the app as we know it? The app is dead. Long live the web app?

It may be too early to pronounce the downloadable application officially dead, but some tech pundits are already preparing obituaries for this staple of the mobile world.

Honda Motor Corp. says it is beginning to restore some production of cars and motorcycles that took a hit from the recent flooding in Thailand.

The Japanese company has restarted output of some motorcycle and power products at its subsidiary in Thailand. It had suspended motorcycle output at the plant since Oct. 11 due to supply problems.

Honda’s auto factory in Thailand remains closed because of the floodwaters.

Honda will continue to limit production at six auto plants in the U.S. and Canada. But it says some factories will produce at rates exceeding the 50 percent the company announced previously. It expects to return to normal levels on Dec. 1 and 2.

Honda says it plans no layoffs at its North American plants.

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Greece’s embattled prime minister and main opposition leader agreed Sunday to form an interim government to ensure the country’s new European debt deal, capping a week of political turmoil that saw Greece face a catastrophic default that threatened its euro membership and roiled international markets.

As part of the deal, Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed to step down halfway through his four-year term. He and conservative opposition head Antonis Samaras are to meet Monday to discuss who will become prime minister and the makeup of the Cabinet.

The new unity government’s main task will be to pass the European rescue package, reached after marathon negotiations between European leaders barely a week ago _ a move considered crucial to shoring up the euro. The interim government will then lead the country into early elections, expected early next year.

Officials had been anxious to reach some form of agreement before a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday.

“Of course it’s a breakthrough,” government spokesman Elias Mossialos said. “It is a historical day for Greece, we will have a coalition government very soon, early next week. The prime minister and the leader of the opposition will discuss tomorrow the name of the new prime minister and the names of ministers.”

Papandreou sparked the latest crisis by announcing last week that he was taking the hard-fought debt agreement to a referendum. That outraged European leaders, who said such a vote could raise the specter of Athens leaving the common currency _ setting off an unpredictable chain reaction that could drag down other European countries.

They also warned a vote would jeopardize the disbursement of a vital $11 billion (euro8 billion) installment of Greece’s existing $152 billion (euro110 billion) bailout, which the country desperately needs to avoid the potential of a catastrophic default within weeks.

In the ensuing market turmoil, Italy _ which also faces severe financial difficulties, but is considered too big to bail out _ saw its borrowing costs spiral, sparking fears it could be dragged into the fray.

Papandreou withdrew the referendum plan Thursday in the wake of European anger and after it sparked a rebellion among his own Socialist lawmakers, many of whom called for him to resign. The turmoil also pushed the conservative opposition party to publicly declare it would back the debt agreement.

Any interim government that is formed with the support of both major parties will be almost guaranteed to push the European rescue package through parliament, even if it has to be approved by a reinforced majority of 180 of the legislature’s 300 lawmakers.

The new European deal would give Greece an additional $179 billion (euro130 billion) in rescue loans and bank support. It would also see banks and private investors write off 50 percent of their Greek debt holdings, worth some $138 billion (euro100 billion). The goal is to reduce Greece’s debts to the point where the country is able to handle its finances without relying on constant bailouts.

Greece’s lawmakers must now approve the package, putting intense pressure on the country’s leaders to swiftly end the political crisis so parliament can convene and put it to a vote.

A planned meeting with the leaders of all political parties in parliament, which was to take place Monday evening, was canceled after two leftist parties refused to attend, the president’s office said.

Sunday’s agreement came after a late-night meeting between Papandreou and Samaras called by President Karolos Papoulias at Papandreou’s request to end a two-day deadlock. Direct talks had failed to get off the ground because Papandreou had said an agreement had to be reached on a new government before he stepped aside, while Samaras insisted Papandrepou resign before the start of negotiations and demanded quick elections.

An opposition conservative party official said Samaras’ New Democracy party was “absolutely satisfied” with the outcome of the talks and that party officials were to hold meetings late Sunday night with Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and his advisers to discuss how long it would take to finalize the new debt deal and when elections could be held.

“Our two targets, for Mr. Papandreou to resign and for elections to be held, have been met,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the process.

The Finance Ministry said a late-night meeting between Venizelos and opposition party members determined the “most suitable” date for elections was Feb. 19.

Two turbulent years after coming to power in a landslide election victory, Papandreou has seen his popularity plummet as his government has been forced to severely cut spending while hiking taxes to tackle a runaway deficit and debt that led Greece to become the first eurozone country to seek an international bailout.

Ireland and Portugal have since followed suit, but European leaders have been desperate to ensure other countries with larger economies are not also dragged down.

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Associated Press writer Nicholas Paphitis in Athens contributed to this report.

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