Financial life in a big town

The Federal Reserve is holding off on increasing monetary accommodation unless the U.S. economic expansion falters or prices rise at a rate slower than its 2 per cent target.

It’s a testament to perseverance that Ricky Arnaz Crawford reached his late 20s before the voices in his head forced him out of steady employment.

Now he’s landed in a bureaucratic snafu on its way to the Missouri Supreme Court.

The Missouri Division of Employment Security is pursuing Crawford for $3,000 – the amount of it says Crawford was overpaid while collecting unemployment in 2009-10.

Crawford, a diagnosed schizophrenic, received the jobless benefits prior to a determination by another agency, the federal Social Security Administration, that he is “not mentally capable of full-time competitive employment.”

The finding enables Crawford to collect government payments for the disabled.

His attorneys contend the state erred in calculating the alleged overpayment.

“He didn’t get any more than he was entitled to, because it was Social Security that reduced the benefit by the amount of his unemployment,” says John Ammann, the director of the St. Louis University Legal Clinic.

Further, they argue, Crawford shouldn’t be on the hook even if he were overpaid – it was the government’s mistake, not his.

“Everybody understands that Arnaz Crawford is totally innocent of any wrongdoing, and that is the legal argument that we are making,” said Martin Perron, his pro bono St. Louis attorney.

Neither the Division of Employment Security nor the Social Security Administration would answer detailed questions about Crawford’s case. The high court is expected to entertain oral arguments this fall.

Crawford’s life has been defined by two constants – family and schizophrenia. His fraternal twin Laressa Crawford, diagnosed at the age of 12, has never been able to work.

Unwilling to accept a similar fate, Ricky Crawford forged ahead, despite the at-times debilitating delusions.

The Dardenne Prairie resident landed his first job at 15 and continued to draw a paycheck, working nearly non-stop at fast food restaurants, cleaning services and retail outlets. Then in early 2009, while stocking shelves at a Lake Saint Louis Wal-Mart, a manager summoned him to an office.

“I was hearing a voice, and I was yelling at myself,” Crawford says. “A customer heard me, and I was fired.”

A spokeswoman for Wal-Mart Stores Inc. was unable to confirm the details of Crawford’s employment. 

The dismissal prompted Crawford to check himself in for a brief and voluntary stay in a mental hospital. Citing a diagnosis of schizophrenia, major depressive disorder and borderline intellectual functioning, a physician subsequently recommended that Crawford apply for disability – a request initially denied by the Social Security Administration.

Crawford appealed the ruling and applied for state unemployment benefits in July 2009 as he waited for the Social Security Administration to reconsider its decision.

Eight months later, the Social Security Administration decided in his favor.

The ruling meant Crawford was eligible for disability payments from March 2, 2010 forward, as well as retroactive compensation for the time that elapsed – a little over a year – as Social Security considered the appeal.

Court documents indicate Social Security Administration and Division of Employment Security officials calculated the amount the federal government needed to deduct from the retroactive disability payments to balance the jobless benefits Crawford accrued as he waited out the appeal process.

Social Security Administration spokeswoman Dorothy Clark said consultations between officials of the federal agency and representatives of state unemployment systems are common in resolving potential overpayments from disability and jobless claims.

But less than a month after Crawford became eligible for disability, the Division of Employment Security – as part of a larger crackdown on over-payments to the unemployed – demanded that Crawford repay $3,000.

It remains unclear whether the agencies made mistakes in calculating Crawford’s benefits. But even if they did, Crawford shouldn’t be on the hook, his lawyers argue.

“The two systems interacted. They did what they were supposed to do,” Ammann said. “You can’t go back now and change it.”

Crawford’s lawyers are challenging a portion of the statute governing unemployment law that allows the state to seek restitution “using any methods under the law,” Perron said.

“It doesn’t give them the right to demand payment when a person is totally innocent of wrongdoing,” he said.

A representative of a leading advocacy organization said Crawford is far from the first mentally disabled individual caught up in disputes with state and federal entitlement bureaucracies.

“For better or worse, this is a dual system based on two factors in conflict with one another,” said Andrew Sperling, director of federal affairs for the National Alliance on Mental Illness. “One is designed with the presumption that you are able-bodied, able to work, and therefore eligible to collect unemployment insurance. The other assumes you are disabled and presumably unable to work.”

In Crawford’s case, that conflict wound its way past several administrative law judges and labor referees before it landed on the steps of the Supreme Court earlier this year.

Ammann hopes the Supreme Court decision in the Crawford case will provide the Division of Employment Security with better direction on issues arising from over-payments and the benefits awarded to displaced workers who, as it happens, are also disabled.

Perron enlisted Ammann and the the SLU law clinic to assist him last month during the preparation of briefs the court will take into consideration as the matter moves toward a formal hearing.

For his part, Crawford wants the problem with the state to go away. And he wants to work again. As required by unemployment insurance rules, Crawford continued to apply for jobs while collecting unemployment and waiting for his appeal to be heard. He accepted a couple of offers from fast food restaurants, only to have putative employers ask him to leave when the voices returned during training and orientation.

And while the symptoms of schizophrenia remain, Crawford has battled back with a regimen of medications. His progress has increased resolve to re-enter the workforce.

His mother, also named Laressa, has no doubt he will again persevere.

“He’s a determined kid, he always has been,” said Laressa Crawford. “I envy him, because he has his goals and he goes after them.”

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A growing number of U.S. cities are choosing to fund essential services like public safety and garbage collection over making payments on their outstanding debt, as rising costs and falling revenue deplete their budgets.

So far, the bond defaults are not roiling the $3.7 trillion municipal market because insurance companies are stepping in to make payments to bond holders in some cases. But defaults on insured bonds are putting pressure on these insurers, which never fully recovered from the last decade’s financial crisis.

The California cities of Stockton and Hercules, as well as Pennsylvania’s capital, Harrisburg, have opted to default on some of their insured debt in recent months.

“Municipalities are saying this is what bond insurance is for - bond holders get paid,” said Richard Lehmann, publisher of Distressed Debt Securities Newsletter.

So far in 2012, there have been 21 muni defaults totaling $978 million, versus 28 defaults totaling $522 million for the same period in 2011, said Lehmann, who sees the number rising. A breakdown of defaults on insured munis was not available.

Although issuers contend they are not singling out insured munis for defaults, some believe that municipalities are strategically protecting bond buyers by relying on insurers to pay the debt service.

“Such a default may signal changing attitudes by distressed municipalities to contemplate a strategic default or bankruptcy on insured debt, knowing that bond holders will not suffer losses,” Moody’s Investors Service said in a report this week.

The credit rating agency added that municipal issuers “may be willing to damage their relationship” with insurers, which in turn could potentially be exposed to large losses.

CITY SERVICES TRUMP BOND-HOLDERS

Harrisburg’s state-appointed receiver said earlier this month that $5.3 million of payments due on general obligation bonds insured by Ambac Assurance Corp will be skipped.

“I was aware they were insured bonds when we made the decision,” David Unkovic, the receiver, told Reuters, adding that the city’s financial condition was more important than bond-holders.

“My first concern as receiver is to maintain vital and necessary service in the city,” he said. “In order to do that I need sufficient cash flows.”

The city of Stockton, nestled among the farms of California’s Central Valley, is defaulting on about $2 million in bond payments for debt sold in 2004, 2007 and 2009. Wells Fargo & Co is the trustee on each of the debt issues and has filed a lawsuit against Stockton for missing its February 28 payment on its $32.8 million of 2004 parking facilities debt, said bank spokeswoman Elise Wilkinson.

Hercules, which had considered bankruptcy, reached a settlement this month with Ambac after defaulting on a $2.4 million bond payment due in February.

Some of the companies are starting to feel the pressure. Syncora Guarantee Inc last month told a federal judge in Alabama that the prospect of it having to make good on millions of dollars a month in debt payments owed by bankrupt Jefferson County might sink the company.

In addition, the once-widespread use of insurance on new issuance has shrunk to a sliver of the muni market. After the financial crisis, so-called monoline insurers left the business, and the largest remaining insurer, Assured Guaranty, is scaling back, depending on states’ bankruptcy laws.

Insured bonds, which accounted for 57.3 percent of muni issuance in 2005, sank to only 5.5 percent of issuance in 2011, according to Thomson Reuters data cash advance today.

Insurers do not appear to perceive an immediate risk. “We don’t feel picked on,” said a senior executive at a bond insurer. “I’m not sure it’s correct to say issuers are deciding to default on insured bonds over uninsured ones. The market does not care whether a bond’s insured or not. The fact they defaulted is what the market remembers.” The executive, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said struggling issuers get no tangible benefit from skipping payments on an insured obligation over an uninsured one since any money must eventually be repaid to the insurer.

“It’s not a get-out-of-jail card,” the executive said.

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS LEGACY

There was a time when bond insurers confined themselves to the dull but steady business of underwriting municipal debt, effectively lending their superior credit ratings to cities and towns for a fee. The insurers branched out into structured financial products, which resulted in huge payouts when the credit crisis hit. One-time market leader MBIA chose to restructure, and its municipal National Public Finance business is no longer writing new policies, pending the outcome of a lawsuit filed by a number of banks challenging the restructuring. Ambac, once the second-largest U.S. bond insurer, went bankrupt in 2010, as did the parent of bond insurer FGIC. Syncora went through a major restructuring in 2009 and stopped writing new business as well. The carnage left one bond insurer standing, Assured Guaranty. On Tuesday Moody’s placed its ratings, including the A3 senior unsecured rating of Assured Guaranty US Holding and Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings, on review for possible downgrade.

“Assured Guaranty’s business and financial profiles may have meaningfully deteriorated due to the firm’s narrower business opportunities and substantial exposure to sectors adversely affected by the financial crisis and current economic stress,” commented Moody’s Associate Managing Director Stanislas Rouyer in a statement.

The company has argued it can still effectively underwrite smaller municipalities with lower-tier ratings. Even so, it is threatening to pull out of some states without tight bankruptcy controls.

“This is weighing more heavily in our underwriting as we examine the legal framework for bankruptcy in every state that we insure municipal securities,” Assured said in a written reply to Reuters. “While some defaults have occurred on insured transactions, most have been on uninsured transactions.”

Assured Guaranty said it believes defaults will remain infrequent, saying its municipal portfolio has experienced “only modest loss development on a few isolated transactions.” As of the end of 2011, Assured Guaranty enhanced $15.2 billion of munis - a drop of 45.1 percent from 2010, when it was also the market’s sole active guarantor. Assured listed exposure to $3.9 billion of debt sold by non-investment grade issuers on its 2011 financial statements. It includes notorious names like Alabama’s Jefferson County sewer system, Harrisburg, Detroit, and Detroit Public Schools. Radian Group, which wrote bond insurance until 2008, said last September it was considering starting a new unit with dormant bond insurance assets it purchased from Macquarie Group. The Financial Times reported this week that Goldman, Sachs & Co has also been hiring for a bond insurance specialist.

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A development group is proposing to turn the Doe Run lead smelter property in Herculaneum into a $100 million facility that will have a port and additional commercial and industrial uses.

St. Louis-based Environmental Operations Inc. and J.H. Berra Construction Co. in St. Louis County have partnered to create a development group, Riverview Commerce Park LLC, to purchase 500 acres in Jefferson County that includes the Doe Run Co’s lead smelting facility and adjoining property in Herculaneum, the companies announced Friday.

The project is in an early stage and will undergo six months of due diligence before more details are announced in the fall, said Environmental Operations’ chairman and CEO Stacy Hastie.

“We’ve talked to two to three potential users for the site, and we think it has a lot of potential.”

Riverview Commerce Park LLC has signed a letter of intent to purchase the property for an undisclosed amount from Maryland Heights-based Doe Run Co.

The property has been used as a lead smelter for more than a century, and in recent years, Doe Run has come under fire because of environmental problems at the site.

In 2010, the company announced it planned to cease production of primary lead at the Herculaneum smelter. In a settlement with federal and state environmental regulators, Doe Run also agreed to pay for clean-up at the site.

Bruce Neil, Doe Run Co.’s president and chief executive officer, said in a statement that the property has “infrastructure and environmental challenges.”

It chose Environmental Operations and J.H. Berra as buyers and developers of the property, he said, because of their expertise in handling similar challenges.

“We’ve been looking at how we could re-purpose the property and still provide some economic vitality for the area,” said Doe Run spokesperson Tammy Stankey. Doe Run’s smelter currently has 277 employees.

Doe Run is developing an alternative lead metal production process, called electrowinning, that uses a wet chemical process to dissolve lead that it claims reduces emissions.

The company is testing the process at a facility in southeastern Missouri and will decide this spring whether to make a recommendation to the company’s board to open a commercial-scale plant for the new technology.

If it moves forward, the new commerce center proposed at Herculaneum would be considered as a possible location, Stankey said.

Jefferson County officials have worked for years to get a port built along the Mississippi River to spur job growth, said Dan Govero president of the port authority.

“We have all this water frontage and we’re not using it,” he said. “The studies we’ve done show there’s an opportunity to ship grain, sand and other materials, and we have the highway and rail access.”

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China reported its biggest monthly trade deficit in at least a decade in February as imports rebounded after a Lunar New Year holiday slowdown, but a broader measure showed global and Chinese demand both weakening.

Exports grew 18.4 percent over a year earlier to $114.5 billion, up from a 0.5 percent contraction in January, when factories were idled for a two-week holiday break, customs data showed Saturday. Imports jumped 39.6 percent to $145.9 billion, reviving after the previous month’s 15 percent decline.

China’s global trade deficit was $31.5 billion _ the biggest since at least the 1990s and a rare exception to a recent string of multibillion-dollar surpluses.

The deficit reflected China’s relatively strong growth amid Europe’s debt crisis and U.S. economic troubles. The economy expanded by 8.9 percent in the final quarter of 2011 and the government’s growth target this year is 7.5 percent.

But a broader measure, combining February’s strong showing with the January slump, showed growth in both imports and exports decelerating markedly.

January-February export growth slowed to 6.9 percent over the same two-month period last year, barely half of December’s 13.4 percent rate. Imports for the two months rose 7.7 percent, down from December’s 11.8 percent.

Analysts look at the combined period to offset the impact of the Lunar New Year, which comes at different times in January or February each year, distorting trade figures as producers rush to fill orders before closing for two weeks or more.

Chinese demand for oil, iron ore, other commodities and industrial components has cooled as export-driven factories see orders fall and Beijing tries to steer its overheated expansion to a sustainable level.

China often records a trade deficit for one month early in the year as factories restock after the holiday, but rarely as large as February’s. Last year, the only monthly deficit was $7.3 billion in February, while surpluses hit a high of $31.5 billion in July.

January’s trade declines were the sharpest since the 2008 global crisis.

China is one of the biggest importers and the top export market for many of its Asian neighbors and commodity suppliers as far away as Australia and Africa, which means cooling demand could have global repercussions.

The International Monetary Fund is forecasting 8.2 percent growth this year but has warned that could fall by as much as half if Europe, China’s biggest export market, suffers a severe decline in activity due to its debt woes.

Exports to the 27-nation European Union contracted by 1.1 percent in February from a year earlier to $19.4 billion, the General Administration of Customs of China reported. China’s trade surplus with Europe contracted by 79 percent to $1.6 billion.

Despite the surge in imports, China’s politically sensitive trade surplus with the United States rose by 1 percent to $8.1 billion.

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Markets were buoyant on Thursday on hopes Greece will get enough support from private investors in a crucial bond swap plan that aims to slash euro107 billion ($140 billion) off its national debt.

Athens is asking private creditors to swap their Greek bonds for new ones with a 53.5 percent lower face value, lower interest rates and longer maturity dates. The hope is that by lowering the amount of debt it has to repay, the country can gradually return to growth.

If not enough investors agree and the bond deal fails, the country could default on its debt in less than two weeks, prompting renewed turmoil in financial markets and knocking confidence in the global economic recovery.

Investors have until 10 p.m. local time (2000 GMT) to sign up, though official results aren’t expected until Friday morning. Only bonds held by private investors are part of the deal, meaning that amounts held by the European Central Bank and other central banks are exempt.

“The markets are in a better mood this morning supported by growing confidence that Greece will be successful this evening in its private sector debt swap,” said Jane Foley, an analyst at Rabobank International.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 1.3 percent at 5,866 while Germany’s DAX rose 2.1 percent to 6,810. The CAC-40 in France was 2 percent higher at 3,460. The euro was also buoyant, trading 0.6 percent higher at $1.3220.

Wall Street is poised for a solid open, too, with both Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.8 percent.

As well as keeping a close watch on Greece’s bond swap results, investors will monitor interest rate decisions from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to digest.

Both are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1 percent and 0 payday loans no faxing.5 percent, respectively.

Most interest will center on what ECB chief Mario Draghi says at his news conference about warnings from Germany’s Bundesbank about the risk the ECB has taken on by loosening rules for collateral on emergency loans to banks.

The ECB is credited with pulling Europe back from the debt crisis brink by offering a total of euro1 trillion ($1.32 trillion) to banks on Dec. 21 and Feb. 29. That eased a looming credit crunch, supported investor confidence, and caused borrowing rates to ease for financially weak countries like Italy and Spain.

Investors will also monitor another round of U.S. economic figures later. Most interest will center on the weekly jobless claims figures in the run-up to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data for February. The payrolls figures often set the market tone for a week or two after their release _ a marked improvement in the U.S. jobs picture in recent months has buoyed hopes over the economic recovery in the U.S. and that’s fed through into the performance of stock markets all round the world.

Earlier in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index climbed 2 percent to 9,768.96. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.3 percent to 20,900.73 and South Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.9 percent to 2,000.76

In mainland China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.1 percent to 2,420.28.

Oil markets tracked equities higher _ the benchmark New York rate was up 79 cents at $106.95 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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Kelvin Chan in Hong Kong contributed to this report.

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Boeing Co., Sikorsky, Eurocopter and Bell, the top four helicopter makers, are focused on Asia as 1,000 orders from countries spanning India to Korea are set to make it the fastest growing military-chopper market by 2015.

Tenders in half a dozen nations should produce sales of $10 billion over the next three years, Norbert Ducrot, executive vice president for the Asia-Pacific region at Eurocopter, the world’s No. 1 manufacturer of rotorcraft, said in an interview.

Key bids include naval tenders in Korea and India, for which Sikorsky, a unit of United Technologies Corp., is pitching its Seahawk antisubmarine model, a version of the Black Hawk.

Asian military spending rose 14 percent last year, funded by the world’s fastest-growing regional economy. The helicopter market is surging as nations race to replace aging Western, Soviet and home-grown models, led by emerging powers seeking the means to extend their military reach, according to Craig Caffrey, a defense analyst at IHS Jane’s DS Forecast in London.

“In China and India, the market is being driven by attempts to improve the mobility of their ground forces, which requires the procurement of large quantities of tactical transport helicopters,” said Caffrey, adding that Asia represents “one of the most open and diverse” markets for the aircraft.

While the U.S. will remain the biggest military-helicopter market over the next decade, its share of sales will dip to 38 percent from 50 percent with its exit from Iraq last year and a withdrawal from Afghanistan planned for 2014, according to London-based Visiongain no fax cash loans.

Competition intensified last week in Singapore, with major manufacturers pushing their products at the last major air show before a series of contract announcements begins with an Indian order for 197 light helicopters valued at $1.5 billion.

India, whose existing chopper fleet is dominated by Soviet models, also has a contest under way for 55 naval helicopters, worth $2.2 billion, for which France-based Eurocopter is pitching the NH90 against Sikorsky’s Seahawk and Textron Inc.’s Bell 429.

The south Asian nation is also seeking 22 attack choppers in a tender for which Chicago-based Boeing says its AH-64 Apache, built in Mesa, Ariz., has been selected as preferred bidder over the Russian Mil Mi-28 Havoc, together with 15 heavy-lift models that have attracted proposals from the Boeing Ch-47 Chinook, built in Ridley Park, Pa., and the Mi-26 Halo.

Boeing is offering the Chinook model used in Afghanistan.

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It was just last summer that the Dow Jones industrial average shed 2,000 points in three terrifying weeks. Investors had a host of things to worry about, including the possibility of another recession.

Now the Dow is within reach of the rarefied 13,000 mark _ a level it hasn’t seen since May 2008, four months before the financial system almost came apart.

A strong one-day rally _ caused by a deal on bailout money for Greece, perhaps, or an unexpectedly positive economic report _ could put it over the top.

What’s more, the average is just a 10 percent rally from an all-time high. And 10 percent rallies can happen fast these days.

The stomach-turning summer is a bad memory. Europe appears to be getting its act together, last summer’s downgrade of the U.S.’ credit rating was quickly forgotten, Washington is mostly behaving, and recession fears are gone.

“There are signs that the economy is getting back on its feet and the market is reacting to that,” says John Prestbo, executive director of Dow Jones Indexes. “The mood is just better in this country than it has been for a while.”

On Wall Street, too. The Dow traded Tuesday at 12,878, a 21 percent rally from Oct. 3, its low point for last year. In January, the average rose more or less in a straight line and added 3.4 percent, its best start to a year since 1997.

From here, the record is tantalizingly close _ 14,164.53, reached Oct. 9, 2007, when the investment houses Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers still existed and the unemployment rate was 4.7 percent.

A 10 percent surge may seem like a lot, but it’s really not. The Dow has gained almost 15 percent since Nov. 25, just 10 weeks ago.

Though there’s a long way to go to get the country back to economic health, there are pockets of encouragement. Unemployment is still 8.3 percent, but it’s the lowest since February 2009. Economic output grew every quarter last year.

Corporate earnings growth has slowed, but analysts think it will pick up again later this year. Investors, always wary of uncertainty, may even be encouraged by some clarity in the Republican presidential nominating race.

Investors are no longer just trying to stem their losses, says Mark Lehmann, president of JMP Securities in San Francisco: “They’re playing a little offense. Six months ago, they were playing defense.”

There’s evidence that the rally has room to run. In a popular measure of how expensive stocks are, the 30 companies that make up the Dow are trading at an average of about 13 times their annual earnings per share.

The last time the Dow was at 13,000, in May 2008, stocks were trading for about 15 times earnings. Stock-market research firm Birinyi Associates estimates Dow stocks have traded at an average of 16 times earnings over the past two decades.

The fire-sale discounts have already come and gone, though. Those were back in early 2009, when the Dow bottomed at 6,547.05, its Great Recession low _ a little more than half the level now. Back then, Dow stocks traded at nine times earnings quick payday loans.

Not everyone believes the rally will last. Joe Gordon, managing partner at Gordon Asset Management in North Carolina, is dubious. He cites the unresolved European debt crisis, the U.S.’ historically high national debt and the millions of people who have given up looking for work, part of the so-called underemployed.

“This is like drinking a lot of coffee in the afternoon,” says Gordon. “It perks you up, then once it fades 45 minutes later you’re even more tired.”

Another wrinkle is that the Dow tracks just 30 companies, so it doesn’t take the full pulse of the market. The Standard & Poor’s 500, with its much larger roster, is still 16 percent away from its all-time high.

“It’s 30 stocks,” says Rob Leiphart, an analyst at Birinyi. “It doesn’t give you a representation of anything.”

But despite its size, the Dow is the market gauge that penetrates the public consciousness, generating headlines and water cooler buzz more than the less publicized S&P.

That’s important because the stock market, even if it has no direct bearing on the fundamentals of the economy, is a psychological motivator of spending because of something known as the wealth effect.

Even people with no stock investments will let their decisions be influenced by swings in the Dow. When it’s up, we tend to feel richer and spend more. When it’s down _ think back to the 500-point daily declines of 2008 _ we tend to feel poorer and spend less.

There’s good reason the Dow has pull over the financial mood of the country. Its 30 stocks account for 25 to 30 percent of the market value of all U.S. public companies, and about 40 percent of the dividends, Dow Jones Indexes estimates.

“Nothing of substance can happen in this economy without these companies feeling it,” Prestbo says.

A handful of companies have an outsized impact on the index. The Dow is a price-weighted average, which means companies with more expensive stocks have more power to drive the average higher or lower.

If you invest $30 in a mutual fund tracking the Dow, you don’t have a dollar riding on each company. Four times as much of your money would end up on Home Depot, which is trading around $45, than Alcoa, trading around $11.

IBM, the highest-priced stock in the Dow, had a giant influence last year. The Dow rose 5.5 percent in 2011, but without IBM it would have risen only 3.4 percent, according to Leiphart’s calculations.

If you were to cut out the next three stocks on the list, McDonald’s, Chevron and ExxonMobil, then the Dow would have finished down 0.25 percent for the year.

The flip side is that stocks like Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Microsoft and Intel trade well below the 13 times earnings for the full Dow. If they catch up, it could be enough to power the average to a record.

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Markets were in a jittery mood on Monday as talks dragged on between Greek political leaders over a fresh austerity package that is required if the debt-ridden country is to get a crucial bailout package.

The leaders of the parties backing Greece’s coalition government are set to hold a second day of emergency talks over austerity measures that rescue creditors are demanding in return for more money. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos will meet with negotiators from the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund in the afternoon and then with the leaders of the three parties backing his coalition.

The parties all publicly oppose steep cuts in private sector pay demanded by the eurozone and IMF, but their backing is needed for the government to reach a deal for the bailout, which must be approved by the Greek Parliament. The new euro130 billion ($171 billion) bailout deal is vital for Greece to avoid bankruptcy next month as it cannot cover a euro14.5 billion ($19.1 billion) bond repayment due March 20 without the rescue funds.

The bailout’s implementation also depends on Greece’s progress in separate talks with banks and other private bondholders to forgive euro100 billion ($131.6 billion) in Greek debt, in exchange for a cash payment and new bonds with more lenient repayment terms.

“Time is running out,” said Lee Hardman, an analyst at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Fears that a deal won’t emerge have reinforced concerns of a disorderly Greek debt default that could send shockwaves round the global economy. That’s kept investors on edge on Monday, even though market sentiment has been fairly buoyant of late following a run of strong U.S. economic data, notably last Friday’s forecast-busting jobs figures for January.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.5 percent at 5,871 while Germany’s DAX fell 0 personal business card.7 percent to 6,720. The CAC-40 in France was 1.3 percent lower at 3,384.

Wall Street was also poised for a lower opening following its rally on Friday, when government figures showed the U.S. economy generated a bigger than expected 243,000 jobs in January, pushing the unemployment rate down to 8.3 percent. Dow futures were down 0.4 percent at 12,744 while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 futures fell 0.6 percent at 1,332.

The euro was also under pressure as investors awaited developments in Athens _ the currency was trading 0.8 percent lower at $1.3041.

Oil prices tracked the broader market trends, with benchmark oil for March delivery down $1.17 at $96.67 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Greece will likely remain the focal point over the week, though a raft of corporate earnings, particularly in Europe, and a host of central bank meetings could garner some interest. The European Central Bank’s monthly policy meeting on Thursday could be crucial in determining market expectations of whether there will be further interest rate reductions. Meanwhile, many traders think the Bank of England will clear the way to inject more money into the U.K. economy in the hope of boosting lending.

Earlier Asian shares mostly traded higher as investors there had their first chance to respond to join in the advance generated by Friday’s upbeat jobs data.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose 1.1 percent to close at 8,929.20, its highest closing in more than three months but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.2 percent to 20,709.94. Benchmarks in Singapore and mainland China also rose.

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Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this report.

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European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said authorities are