Energy developer Tenaska Inc. has worked since 2007 to win legislative backing for a next-generation coal-fueled power plant southeast of Springfield. A key selling point was that the project would give a lift to the downstate coal-mining industry.
But Tenaska has failed to get a bill pushed through the General Assembly in the face of opposition from a coalition of business and environmental interests.
Now, with the clock ticking on another legislative session, the company is taking a new tack: It’s proposing to proposing to ditch coal for natural gas.
The new strategy, which has yet to be formalized, is part concession to political reality and part acknowledgement of the U.S. shale gas revolution that’s upended energy markets.
“We thought about it a long time and made a proposal that meets all of the objections that have been raised,” said Bart Ford, a Tenaska vice president.
As originally envisioned, the project would have transformed Illinois coal into a synthetic gas and burned that gas to produce electricity. The technology would allow much of the carbon dioxide and other pollutants from coal to be stripped out before combustion.
Under the new proposal, hatched during a meeting in Springfield earlier this week, Tenaska would move ahead only with the part of the plant that would burn natural gas for electricity. It could seek to add the coal-gasification unit later if market conditions warrant, Ford said.
Whatever the outcome in Springfield, Tenaska’s strategy shift is the latest evidence of the seismic shift taking place in energy markets.
Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies that opened up more of the country to natural gas drilling and vastly expanded domestic natural gas production has had a huge impact on the price of the fuel, which remains at around $2.50 per thousand cubic feet — the lowest level since 2002.
The drop in gas prices has led utilities to increasingly embrace natural gas at the expense of coal and made projects to convert coal into gas, which were already a tough sell to policy makers and lenders, practically impossible.
With natural gas at $2.50, “coal gasification doesn’t make sense,” said Ed Rubin, a professor in engineering and public policy department at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. For the foreseeable future, “gas is going to the fuel of choice”
Tenaska’s proposed modification would shave off about two thirds of the project’s original $3.5 billion price tag. That would limit the impact on average residential utility customers to about 60 cents a month.
The proposal being floated in Springfield would also cap rate increases for commercial utility customers at one-tenth cent per kilowatt-hour. Previously filed legislation to advance Tenaska’s coal-gasification plant offered no such guarantees.
Tenaska says the project would not only create thousands of jobs, it would help offset what are projected to be significant electricity price increases in coming years.
There’s already evidence that electricity prices in northern Illinois will jump considerably beginning in 2014 as older, less efficient coal plants are mothballed because they can’t compete economically in an era of cheap natural gas and tougher environmental regulations.
But despite an outlook for higher power prices, Tenaska says it still needs legislation that would require utilities to buy the plant’s output for the next 30 years. That’s because Wall Street otherwise won’t finance a large new power plant in a deregulated state like Illinois unless it has a long-term agreement to sell the output. And such agreements aren’t possible with Illinois’ power procurement rules.
The Citizens Utility Board, a Chicago-based consumer group, supported previous legislation to advance the coal gasification plant because it capped maximum rate increases for residential customers and small businesses.
Jim Chilsen, a CUB spokesman, said the group is still reviewing Tenaska’s modified proposal, and that its support generally hinges on a cap on any rate increases.
The STOP Coalition — a group that includes power generator Exelon Corp., business and environmental interests that galvanized to fight the Taylorville project legislation — issued a statement indicating it hasn’t yet formed a position on Tenaska’s new proposal.
“When details of the proposal emerge, we will look at it with the goal of ensuring customers aren’t subject to unnecessary rate increases,” the group said.
Ford doesn’t necessarily believe opponents will change their stance. But he said it’s important to show legislators that the company responded to all of the objections in an effort to form consensus.
He also said it’s important for Tenaska to get the legislation approved before the legislative session ends on May 31. The company is close to an agreement needed to interconnect with the power grid and already has an air permit needed to move forward.
“The clock is ticking,” he said.
Only a few years ago, Illinois was positioned for the first wave of coal gasification plants, including Tenaska’s Taylorville Energy Center.
Peabody Energy Corp., the world’s largest private-sector coal producer, announced efforts in 2005 to pursue a coal-gasification project in Illinois with ArcLight Capital Partners in response to what it deemed “scarce U.S. natural gas” supplies.
The Department of Energy-sponsored FutureGen project was proposed by President George W. Bush.
But “none of them have come to fruition,” said Phil Gonet, head of the Illinois Coal Association.
Gonet said Tenaska’s plan to move ahead with only part of the Taylorville project “reflects the reality” that cheap natural gas is hurting the coal industry. But he’d rather see part of the Taylorville plant built — and perhaps converted later to run on Illinois coal — than for the plant to not get built at all.
“Is it a setback for coal? yeah. But I wouldn’t call it a major setback,” Gonet said.
St. Louis-based Peabody said it still sees coal-to-gas technology as viable longer term in the U.S., but wouldn’t move any such projects to the “front burner” until natural gas move higher. The company is also optimistic about the potential to convert its coal reserves into transportation fuels, spokesman Vic Svec said.
Rubin said it remains to be seen whether the energy industry’s bet on cheap natural gas is a smart one. The country leaned heavily on natural gas a decade ago, and the plan backfired.
Meanwhile, development of technology to convert coal to gas is still advancing in other parts of the world.
“China is where the action is,” he said.
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